All political parties including the ruling All Progressives Congress (APC) in Ondo State are expected to conclude their governorship primaries ahead of the Gubernatorial Election slated to hold on Saturday, November 16, 2024, by the Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC).

Although, it was public knowledge that the incumbent Governor of the state, Hon. Lucky Aiyedatiwa is interested to run for the election, but he never make any public or official statement to express his interest; until two days ago when he declared his intention on TVC News after the remains of his late boss, Odunayo Rotimi Akeredolu was laid to rest in Owo, Ondo State.

The governor declared his intention to contest the forthcoming governorship election in the state, saying “I can’t be a governor for just one year”.
No doubt, he is constitutionally allowed to rule for one more term in line with the constitution of the federal republic of Nigeria.

AKINRINLOLA OLUMIDE writes about the hurdles the governor is going to face ahead of the November 2024 governorship election in Ondo State.

Governor Aiyedatiwa is likely to face the following battles:

Looming crisis in APC

No fewer than 25 aspirants have shown interest to contest the governorship election under the platform of APC. Invariably, some may step down while some may not. Starnews NG reports that some of the aspirants with good structures are battle ready to slug it out with the incumbent governor and no one will dismiss the fact that it will cause disaffection and lead to crisis. If it does, it will affect the chances of the governor in the general election if he wins his party’s ticket, as some of the aspirants didn’t like him and they are too big to be cowed. They’re likely to play the spoiler’s roles in the general election if the primary does not go as expected.

Division among Stakeholders

The Bible says a house divided against itself cannot stand. There is obvious division among the stakeholders and power brokers in the ruling APC in Ondo State. The APC has been factionalised in Ondo State. The House of Representatives Lawmakers are divided. Six out of the nine lawmakers are working against Aiyedatiwa. The two senators from Ondo North and Central are watching from the distance. No one could predict what they conceived in minds. It was also learnt that Hon. Bunmi Tunji Ojo, the brilliant and influential Interior Minister is not in Aiyedatiwa’s camp. The Adetimehin-APC led executives in the state are also divided. Some youths leaders under Adetimehin recently declared support for Paul Akintelure. Aiyedatiwa has a lot to contend with here.

The ousted cabals loyal to Akeredolu

Some cabals loyal to late Governor Akeredolu who are no longer in government have already created WhatsApp group where they hold regular virtual meetings in preparation for the forthcoming election. It was learnt they’re planning to produce a consensus aspirant from their group ahead of the primary. Starnews NG gathered they had concluded plans to settle for someone else and team up against Aiyedatiwa if their calculation for a consensus didn’t work out. They agreed to support someone else but not definitely Aiyedatiwa if it didn’t go as planned.

The Two Strong Men in his party

Some verses of the scripture narrates who is a strong man. Mathew 12:29 says “ Or how can someone enter a strong man’s house and plunder his goods, unless he first binds the strong man? Then indeed he may plunder his house”. But in Luke 11:21, the Bible says “When a strong man with many weapons guards his own house, the things in his house are safe. But suppose a stronger man comes and defeats him. The stronger man will take away the weapons that the first man trusted to keep his house safe”.

Sincerely speaking, Gov Aiyedatiwa will have to contend with the two strong men in his party, and the two of them are Senator Jimoh Ibrahim and Chief Olusola Oke. Both men are strong, connected and influential. He will have to prove that he is stronger than both of them before he could defeat them in the primary and also defeat them to win the election. One thing is to win the ticket , another thing is to win the governorship election.

Jimoh Ibrahim is not a man anyone could tame easily. He is rich, fearless, influential and battled ready. Although the governor holds the power of incumbency, but it won’t take Senator Jimoh anything to frustrate him if he loses the APC ticket. I do not want to say much, but the governor should place Senator Jimoh on his watchlist and shouldn’t underestimate his influence and financial power to do and undo, to twist and untwist.

On the other hand, Chief Oke is a Household name and another strong man in the politics of Ondo State that Governor Aiyedatiwa will have to contend with. He is influential and has the political spreadsheet and structure across the 18 local governments of the state. He is loved by the people.

Many have sympathies for him having contested many times and failed. A lot believed he should be crowned for the job for being focused and consistent in what he wants. He never struggle for appointments or take up any political appointment ever since he lost the ticket to late Akeredolu.

All he wants has been the number one seat in the Alagbaka government house, he is from the same Ilaje local government with Aiyedatiwa. The Bible says a man’s enemies are those of his own household.

Oke and Jimoh are the two strong men who could open the flood gate of doom for the governor. This is because both of them will definitely seek alternatives to run for the election should they fail to pick the ticket of the APC to run in the 2024 Ondo Governorship election.

How to convince Ondo South electorate for a single term of four years

Although the Supreme Court has not rested the case and the interpretations of the Nigerian constitution of whether a governor can take oath of office more than twice. This issue is still subject to controversies.

Despite the fact that the constitution says that no one can take oath of office as a governor or president more than twice, the Supreme Court still has a lot to do to interpret this section of the Constitution whether such a clause is only peculiar to an elected governor or president or whether it also affects a deputy governor or vice president who only took such oath to complete the term of a deceased governor or president.

Except this is settled by the highest court in the land, it may be difficult for Governor Aiyedatiwa to convince the good people of Ondo South to elect him for a single term of four years in office, because the people were long agitating to produce the governor for two-term of eight years and not for a single term of four years.